California Mortgage News
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Foreclosure - What to do?
Many people avoid the problem of home foreclosure, not realizing that proactive measures can save your house. Let's face it, it's embarrassing to be behind on your mortgage, but don't let embarrassment cause you to lose your house. Remember the mortgage holder doesn't really want to foreclosure on the home. Foreclosure is expensive and in today's market usually means that the lender is going to lose money. Furthermore foreclosures can have network effects driving down home values throughout a neighborhood. If a lender has additional loans out there it can adversely affect their portfolio. So here are some steps you can take


There are options out there to avoid foreclosure, you just need to find them and face the problem.

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Monday, February 26, 2007
See No Evil
Seeking Alpha has a bubble tracker and round up. Remarkably people who have a vested interest in saying things are GREAT continue to do so. Here's a great one from Idaho, ""Sales of single-family homes in the Treasure Valley in January were off 27% from Jan. 2006," yet according to Don Hubble of Hubble Homes, "We're optimistc." Talk about cognative dissonance.

Here's another report - this time in California in the Central Valley with an expert saying the housing bubble has adjusted

"The foreclosure market in California and the nation in 2007 may not be quite as intense as it was last year but many home buyers who used creative financing to get into their homes are still in danger of foreclosure, says Serdar Bankaci, founder and president of Default Research Inc. of Mt. Pleasant, Pa."

Look at that lead... "may not be quite as intense"? Based on what data? Let's take a t the actual data. Here's a great post at the OC Register
"RealtyTrac from Irvine reports ....

"California’s foreclosure total of 14,430 was the nation’s second highest and represented a 14 percent increase from the previous month. The state’s foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 846 households registered slightly above the national average and 14th highest among the states."

So instead of cooling down - the foreclosure rate is actaully INCREASING in California.

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Monday, June 19, 2006
ARMS - Driving up foreclosures!
This is a pretty good article which comes the AP via Yahoo. The article is surprisingly good and highlights what loose credit standards combined with ARMS leads to. All the examples cited in the article are on the margins, ie lower value homes, sub prime loans and in markets not nearly as hot as California. Overall according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, foreclosures fell in all categories except sub prime loans. My gut tells me that the numbers will be way up for sub prime loans as these are people who cannot get credit elsewhere and very often cannot re-finance into a fixed loan because of poor credit.

""ARMs are a ticking time bomb," said Brad Geisen, president and chief executive of property tracker Foreclosure.com. "Through 2006 and 2007, I'm pretty sure we'll see a high volume of foreclosures."

Last year, foreclosures hit a historical low nationwide at about 50,000. But that number has more than doubled since then, according to Foreclosure.com.


Let's keep in mind something. The number has doubled it's only JUNE! That means we are on pace to having four times the number of foreclosures in 2006 than we did in 2005. That's a huge spike and pretty frightening.

This won't have as much of an effect on California just yet,

"Gaines pointed out that although California's default notices are rising by the thousands, actual foreclosure sales remain in the hundreds. Because of California's still-active housing market, homeowners there can sell their properties before going into foreclosure.

On the flip side, in less active markets like Texas and Georgia, homeowners can't find a buyer in time and are forced into foreclosure."


A bit of statistics manipulation and things don't seem as bad as things really are in the Golden State

California, where the median home price reached $468,000 in April, leads the nation in the percentage of homes purchased with adjustable rate mortgages. Nationwide, ARMs account for 24 percent of all home loans.

"In our zeal to make mortgage lending more available to a greater number of people, it's normal to expect the foreclosure rate to go up," Gaines said.

The problem with this number is that it takes all mortgages and lumps together. So my father in law who purchased his home in 1977 for $77,000 (now worth well over $750,00 0) is lumped in. This hides and understates the real problems that ARMs are going to be in California. As I covered in a recent post 61% of new mortgages in 2005 are interest only! So people buying at the very top of the market with financial instruments set to reset in 2007 and 2008. 2008 is going to be a very tough year for anyone who bought with an ARM.

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Covering the mortgage and real estate market in California. Find information on real estate, mortgage vendors and mortgage brokers.

Name: Brian DeSpain
Location: Las Vegas, New Mexico, United States

Writer, open source geek and general rastabout.

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